Newport County 0-1 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newport County vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 40 as Newport County welcome Exeter City to Rodney Parade. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Newport County — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newport County have posted 5W 3D 2L at Rodney Parade — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Exeter City have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Exeter City's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Exeter City's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Newport County's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Newport County, 0 for Exeter City and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Newport County in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Exeter City in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 58% versus Exeter City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 60% | Exeter City 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.29 xG and Exeter City 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.379 / defence 1.336 | Exeter City attack 0.936 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.099. Newport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Newport County games / 38 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 33% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 37%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Exeter City 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 70% | Exeter City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Exeter City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 33% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Newport County 1.29 / Exeter City 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.379 / def 1.336 | Exeter City attack 0.936 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Exeter City xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Exeter City kick off?
Newport County vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Exeter City?
Newport County 0 - 1 Exeter City.
Where is Newport County vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Exeter City part of?
Newport County vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 33% chance of winning, Exeter City a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Newport County and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Exeter City?
Record (1 meetings): Newport County 0W | Draws 1 | Exeter City 0W.
What form are Newport County and Exeter City in?
Newport County (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Exeter City (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Newport County's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Exeter City's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.41
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.66
1.37
Exeter City xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Newport County and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Newport County and 1.37 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newport County's recent record stands at 16W 12D 10L from 38 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 6L across 38 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 1.58 PPG, Exeter City on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 9W 6D 4L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Exeter City's away record stands at 7W 8D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Newport County are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.47 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 16W 12D 10L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 18W 14D 6L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Exeter City away?
Newport County's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.74 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Newport County or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newport County have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Exeter City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newport County and Exeter City runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Newport County
1
Draws
1
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Exeter City?
From 2 meetings on record, Newport County have won 0, Exeter City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Newport County 0-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 63%, Exeter City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Newport County) and 47% (Exeter City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Exeter City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Exeter City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Newport County's games and 58% of Exeter City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newport County vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Newport County's matches and 47% of Exeter City's.
Do Newport County and Exeter City tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Newport County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Newport County 0-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.29 xG and Exeter City 1.37 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newport County fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.38 / defence 1.34 against Exeter City attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 33% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 37%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 60%, Exeter City 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Exeter City's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 1.58 PPG, Exeter City 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.