Mansfield Town 2-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Stockport County meet at One Call Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 7W 1D 2L at One Call Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Mansfield Town are significantly better at One Call Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stockport County have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 League Two outings this season: 1W 0D 3L. Last five: L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.95 in Mansfield Town's favour (1.70 vs 0.75) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 25% versus Stockport County 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 25% | Stockport County 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 2.36 xG and Stockport County 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.397 / defence 1.053 | Stockport County attack 0.879 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.976. Mansfield Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Mansfield Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Mansfield Town games / 4 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 70% | Draw 18% | Stockport County 13%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Stockport County 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 50% | Stockport County 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 70% | Draw 18% | Stockport County 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Mansfield Town 2.36 / Stockport County 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.397 / def 1.053 | Stockport County attack 0.879 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stockport County xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Stockport County kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Stockport County?
Mansfield Town 2 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Stockport County part of?
Mansfield Town vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 70% chance of winning, Stockport County a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mansfield Town and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mansfield Town and Stockport County in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Stockport County (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (1.40) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.88x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.70
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
3.26
0.90
Stockport County xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
9%
10.57
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
1%
83.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.90 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County's form line: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Stockport County in 75%.
Last 4 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Mansfield Town
2
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 5, Stockport County have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Stockport County?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 25%, Stockport County 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Mansfield Town) and 75% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 75% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 75% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Stockport County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Stockport County 2-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 2.36 xG and Stockport County 0.90 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.40 / defence 1.05 against Stockport County attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 70% | Draw 18% | Stockport County 13%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 25%, Stockport County 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.