Hartlepool 0-5 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hartlepool vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockport County make the trip to The Suit Direct Stadium to face Hartlepool in League Two, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hartlepool (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hartlepool have posted 2W 4D 4L at The Suit Direct Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Stockport County's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stockport County have posted 3W 1D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.11 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stockport County are 0.90 PPG clear of Hartlepool in recent League Two fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Hartlepool — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hartlepool 63% and Stockport County 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 58% | Stockport County 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.840 / defence 1.159 | Stockport County attack 0.981 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.059. Data: 65 Hartlepool games / 19 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 31% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 40%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Stockport County 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hartlepool 50% | Stockport County 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 31% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Hartlepool 1.04 / Stockport County 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.840 / def 1.159 | Stockport County attack 0.981 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Stockport County xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Stockport County kick off?
Hartlepool vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 December 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Stockport County?
Hartlepool 0 - 5 Stockport County.
Where is Hartlepool vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Stockport County part of?
Hartlepool vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 31% chance of winning, Stockport County a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hartlepool and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hartlepool and Stockport County in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hartlepool's attack rating (0.84) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.98x) against Hartlepool's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 65/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
31%
3.18
29%
3.46
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.24
1.20
Stockport County xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.20 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hartlepool come into this having played 19 games, going 2W 6D 11L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Hartlepool — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hartlepool's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.63 PPG overall — Hartlepool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Hartlepool are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hartlepool have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stockport County in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Stockport County away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.11 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Hartlepool or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hartlepool have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Stockport County in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
1
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Stockport County have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Stockport County 1-1 Hartlepool.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 56%, Stockport County 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hartlepool) and 67% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stockport County in 33%; Hartlepool have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hartlepool's games and 67% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hartlepool vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Hartlepool's matches and 67% of Stockport County's.
Do Hartlepool and Stockport County tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Hartlepool 0-5 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.20 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 1.20 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 31% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 40%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 58%, Stockport County 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. Hartlepool (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.