Hartlepool 0-0 Scunthorpe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Scunthorpe make the trip to The Suit Direct Stadium to face Hartlepool in League Two, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hartlepool have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hartlepool's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at The Suit Direct Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hartlepool are significantly better at The Suit Direct Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Scunthorpe's overall League Two record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Scunthorpe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Scunthorpe have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Hartlepool, 0.80 for Scunthorpe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hartlepool register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Scunthorpe in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Scunthorpe half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 50% versus Scunthorpe 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 50% | Scunthorpe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 2.10 xG and Scunthorpe 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 1.162 / defence 1.186 | Scunthorpe attack 0.724 / defence 1.708. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.164. Scunthorpe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.708 — this is suppressing Hartlepool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Hartlepool games / 20 Scunthorpe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 61% | Draw 24% | Scunthorpe 15%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Scunthorpe 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hartlepool (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hartlepool as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 70% | Scunthorpe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 61% | Draw 24% | Scunthorpe 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Hartlepool 2.10 / Scunthorpe 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 1.162 / def 1.186 | Scunthorpe attack 0.724 / def 1.708 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Scunthorpe xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe kick off?
Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe?
Hartlepool 0 - 0 Scunthorpe.
Where is Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe part of?
Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 61% chance of winning, Scunthorpe a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hartlepool and Scunthorpe will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Scunthorpe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hartlepool and Scunthorpe in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 1.16x the league average against Scunthorpe's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Scunthorpe's attack (0.72x) against Hartlepool's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.13
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
3.10
1.00
Scunthorpe xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
54.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Scunthorpe expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.00 for Scunthorpe, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hartlepool's recent record stands at 8W 2D 10L from 20 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Scunthorpe, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 9L across 20 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Scunthorpe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hartlepool by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Scunthorpe heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hartlepool have managed 7W 1D 2L from 10 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Hartlepool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Scunthorpe's away record stands at 0W 5D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hartlepool are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Scunthorpe are on 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Scunthorpe in 65%.
Last 20 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Blended
Scunthorpe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Scunthorpe in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 8W 2D 10L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Scunthorpe have gone 2W 9D 9L in their last 20 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Scunthorpe away?
Hartlepool's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 2.20 PPG; Scunthorpe away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
2
Draws
0
Scunthorpe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Scunthorpe?
From 2 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Scunthorpe have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Scunthorpe last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Scunthorpe 1-1 Hartlepool.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Hartlepool, 70% for Scunthorpe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hartlepool) and 50% (Scunthorpe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Scunthorpe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Scunthorpe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hartlepool's games and 70% of Scunthorpe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hartlepool's matches and 50% of Scunthorpe's.
Do Hartlepool and Scunthorpe tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Scunthorpe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hartlepool's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool and Scunthorpe finished level at 0-0 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 2.10 xG and Scunthorpe 1.00 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Scunthorpe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 1.16 / defence 1.19 against Scunthorpe attack 0.72 / defence 1.71, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 61% | Draw 24% | Scunthorpe 15%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 50%, Scunthorpe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Scunthorpe's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hartlepool arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Scunthorpe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.