Harrogate Town 1-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port Vale at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Harrogate Town vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 25 as Harrogate Town welcome Port Vale to EnviroVent Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Harrogate Town have posted 3W 2D 5L at EnviroVent Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Port Vale — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Port Vale's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Harrogate Town 1.20 PPG, Port Vale 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Harrogate Town, 1 for Port Vale and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Port Vale winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 55% versus Port Vale 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 58% | Port Vale 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.26 xG and Port Vale 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 1.103 / defence 1.282 | Port Vale attack 1.075 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.117. Data: 32 Harrogate Town games / 31 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 42%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Port Vale 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Harrogate Town 50% | Port Vale 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: EnviroVent Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Harrogate Town 1.26 / Port Vale 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 1.103 / def 1.282 | Port Vale attack 1.075 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Port Vale xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs Port Vale kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at EnviroVent Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Harrogate Town 1 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at EnviroVent Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Port Vale part of?
Harrogate Town vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 29% chance of winning, Port Vale a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Harrogate Town and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Harrogate Town 0W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Harrogate Town and Port Vale in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Port Vale (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Harrogate Town's attack rating (1.10) and Port Vale's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.46
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.80
1.54
Port Vale xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.54 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Harrogate Town come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 9D 12L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Harrogate Town on 1.26 PPG, Port Vale on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Harrogate Town's home form reads 4W 5D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.45 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.21 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Harrogate Town or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Harrogate Town have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Port Vale in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Harrogate Town and Port Vale runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Harrogate Town's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Port Vale?
From 4 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 0, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Port Vale 0-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Harrogate Town at 57%, Port Vale at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Harrogate Town) and 50% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Harrogate Town's games and 79% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Harrogate Town vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 50% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Port Vale tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Harrogate Town and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at EnviroVent Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Harrogate Town and Port Vale drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.26 xG and Port Vale 1.54 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.10 / defence 1.28 against Port Vale attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 42%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 58%, Port Vale 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.26 PPG, Port Vale 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.