Gillingham 1-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Port Vale in League Two (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gillingham have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gillingham's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gillingham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Port Vale are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Gillingham's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) — Gillingham have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Port Vale in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Gillingham half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 40% versus Port Vale 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 35% | Port Vale 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.10 xG and Port Vale 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.951 / defence 0.905 | Port Vale attack 1.050 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.260. Data: built from Gillingham's last 60 games and Port Vale's last 14.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 33% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 38%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.99 | Draw 3.53 | Port Vale 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 30% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, matchday 15 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 33% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Gillingham 1.10 / Port Vale 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.951 / def 0.905 | Port Vale attack 1.050 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Port Vale xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Port Vale kick off?
Gillingham vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Gillingham 1 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Gillingham vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Port Vale part of?
Gillingham vs Port Vale is a League Two fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 33% chance of winning, Port Vale a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gillingham and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Gillingham vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gillingham's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (1.05x) against Gillingham's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 60 games and Port Vale's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.53
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.30
1.20
Port Vale xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.20 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gillingham come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 12D 24L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (19W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Gillingham against 1.18 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gillingham's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gillingham are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Gillingham (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Gillingham vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Port Vale away?
Gillingham's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.60 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Port Vale in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 20 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Gillingham
1
Draws
0
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Port Vale?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 2, Port Vale have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2026: Gillingham 1-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Port Vale?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 43%, Port Vale 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gillingham) and 43% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Port Vale in 33%; Gillingham have failed to score in 27% of games; Port Vale in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gillingham's recent matches and 33% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gillingham's recent games and 43% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Gillingham's recent matches and 53% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Port Vale 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Port Vale 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.10 xG and Port Vale 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Port Vale attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 33% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 38%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gillingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Port Vale 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Port Vale's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.40 PPG, Port Vale 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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