Forest Green 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forest Green vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to The Bolt New Lawn to face Forest Green in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Forest Green (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Forest Green, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forest Green's home record at The Bolt New Lawn: 1W 1D 8L from 10 League Two appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Crawley Town arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Forest Green lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Forest Green goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 50% versus Crawley Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 50% | Crawley Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.56 xG and Crawley Town 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.797 / defence 1.358 | Crawley Town attack 0.974 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.335. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Forest Green games / 60 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 34% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 43%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Crawley Town 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Forest Green 40% | Crawley Town 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 34% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Forest Green 1.56 / Crawley Town 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.797 / def 1.358 | Crawley Town attack 0.974 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Crawley Town xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Crawley Town kick off?
Forest Green vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Crawley Town?
Forest Green 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Forest Green vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Crawley Town part of?
Forest Green vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 34% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Forest Green and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Forest Green 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Forest Green and Crawley Town in?
Forest Green (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Forest Green's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.97x) against Forest Green's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
34%
2.92
23%
4.38
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Forest Green xG
Total xG
3.32
1.76
Crawley Town xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
6%
17.05
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.76 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Forest Green have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 9W 10D 41L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Forest Green is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 17W 16D 27L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Crawley Town are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Forest Green.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Forest Green have posted 0.69 PPG from 29 outings (6W 2D 21L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 3W 9D 17L from 29 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Attack vs Defence
Forest Green are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.18 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 9W 10D 41L in their last 60 games (0.62 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Crawley Town away?
Forest Green's home record (0.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 0.69 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forest Green won 6-3 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forest Green have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Forest Green
0
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Crawley Town 2-0 Forest Green.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 45%, Crawley Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Forest Green) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Forest Green have failed to score in 41% of games; Crawley Town in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Forest Green's recent matches and 52% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Forest Green's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forest Green defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Crawley Town 2-1 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.56 xG and Crawley Town 1.76 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.80 / defence 1.36 against Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 34% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 43%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Forest Green win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 50%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Forest Green winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forest Green (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.