Exeter City 0-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to St James Park to face Exeter City in League Two, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Exeter City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at St James Park, Exeter City have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Salford City's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Exeter City. A 0.60 PPG lead over Salford City (2.30 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Exeter City lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Exeter City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Exeter City — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Salford City — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 61% versus Salford City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 54% | Salford City 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.10 xG and Salford City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.184 / defence 1.086 | Salford City attack 0.940 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.112. Data: 33 Exeter City games / 33 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 32% | Draw 33% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Salford City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Exeter City (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 60% | Salford City 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 32% | Draw 33% | Salford City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Exeter City 1.10 / Salford City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.184 / def 1.086 | Salford City attack 0.940 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Salford City (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Salford City xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Salford City kick off?
Exeter City vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Salford City?
Exeter City 0 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Exeter City vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Salford City part of?
Exeter City vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 32% chance of winning, Salford City a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Exeter City and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 1W | Draws 0 | Salford City 0W.
What form are Exeter City and Salford City in?
Exeter City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Salford City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (1.18) and Salford City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.94x) against Exeter City's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
32%
3.08
33%
3.01
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.24
1.14
Salford City xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.14 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City's recent record stands at 15W 12D 6L from 33 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 11L across 33 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Exeter City against 1.45 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 9W 5D 2L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 7W 2D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.15 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Exeter City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Salford City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Salford City in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 15W 12D 6L in their last 33 games (1.73 PPG), while Salford City have gone 13W 9D 11L in their last 33 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Salford City away?
Exeter City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 2.00 PPG; Salford City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Salford City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Exeter City
1
Draws
0
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Salford City?
From 2 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 1, Salford City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Exeter City 0-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Salford City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 56%, Salford City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Exeter City) and 38% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Salford City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Exeter City's recent matches and 44% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Exeter City's recent games and 38% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Salford City tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Salford City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Exeter City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 36, as Exeter City and Salford City drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.10 xG and Salford City 1.14 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Salford City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.18 / defence 1.09 against Salford City attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 32% | Draw 33% | Salford City 34%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 54%, Salford City 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salford City's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.73 PPG, Salford City 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.