Crewe 1-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 50%, yet in-form Sutton Utd provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crewe vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crewe and Sutton Utd meet at Mornflake Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crewe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crewe at Mornflake Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sutton Utd (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sutton Utd have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sutton Utd arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Sutton Utd 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 47% | Sutton Utd 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.54 xG and Sutton Utd 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.086 / defence 0.988 | Sutton Utd attack 1.094 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.927. Data: 3 Crewe games / 49 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 50% | Draw 26% | Sutton Utd 25%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Sutton Utd 4.00. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sutton Utd (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 60% | Sutton Utd 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 50% | Draw 26% | Sutton Utd 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Crewe 1.54 / Sutton Utd 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.086 / def 0.988 | Sutton Utd attack 1.094 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Crewe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sutton Utd xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Crewe vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Crewe 1 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Crewe vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Sutton Utd part of?
Crewe vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 50% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Crewe and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Sutton Utd in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sutton Utd's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (1.09x) against Crewe's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.91
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.54
1.00
Sutton Utd xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
18.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Crewe and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Crewe and 1.00 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crewe's recent record stands at 9W 8D 32L from 49 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 15L across 49 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sutton Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sutton Utd by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crewe heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 6W 5D 13L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.47 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Early Season
Sutton Utd
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 9W 8D 32L in their last 49 games (0.71 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 23W 11D 15L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 0.96 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Crewe or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Crewe
2
Draws
0
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Crewe have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when Crewe 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Sutton Utd?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Sutton Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crewe) and 46% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crewe's recent matches and 54% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crewe's recent games and 46% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Sutton Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Sutton Utd 1-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.54 xG and Sutton Utd 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sutton Utd landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Sutton Utd attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 50% | Draw 26% | Sutton Utd 25%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 47%, Sutton Utd 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Crewe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.