Crawley Town 1-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Walsall make the trip to The People's Pension Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 43. The match kicks off on Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at The People's Pension Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Walsall have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Crawley Town, 1.50 for Walsall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Crawley Town 0W, Walsall 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 68% versus Walsall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Walsall 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.29 xG and Walsall 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / defence 1.170 | Walsall attack 0.627 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.093. Walsall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Crawley Town games / 42 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 30% | Walsall 23%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Walsall 4.35. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Walsall 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 30% | Walsall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Crawley Town 1.29 / Walsall 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / def 1.170 | Walsall attack 0.627 / def 1.347 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Walsall xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Walsall kick off?
Crawley Town vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Crawley Town vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Walsall part of?
Crawley Town vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 48% chance of winning, Walsall a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Crawley Town and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 1 | Walsall 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Walsall in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Walsall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.97x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.63x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.39
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.09
0.80
Walsall xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.80 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 9D 16L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (13W 11D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.22 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 7W 6D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.05 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Walsall in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Walsall have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Walsall away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.35 PPG; Walsall away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
6
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Walsall?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Walsall have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 65%, Walsall 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Crawley Town) and 30% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Walsall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Walsall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Crawley Town's games and 45% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Crawley Town's recent games and 30% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Walsall tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Walsall in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Walsall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Walsall 1-0 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.29 xG and Walsall 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Walsall landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Walsall attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 48% | Draw 30% | Walsall 23%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 58%, Walsall 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Walsall's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.39 PPG, Walsall 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.