Crawley Town 0-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crawley Town's home record at The Broadfield Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.20 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crawley Town lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Shrewsbury winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Shrewsbury 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 51% | Shrewsbury 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.41 xG and Shrewsbury 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.885 / defence 1.156 | Shrewsbury attack 0.839 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Crawley Town games / 43 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 43% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 31%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Shrewsbury 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 50% | Shrewsbury 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 43% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Crawley Town 1.41 / Shrewsbury 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.885 / def 1.156 | Shrewsbury attack 0.839 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shrewsbury xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury part of?
Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 43% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Crawley Town and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Shrewsbury?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Shrewsbury in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.89) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.84x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.79
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.56
1.16
Shrewsbury xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.16 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 89 games, going 20W 23D 46L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 0.90 PPG from 89 outings (21W 17D 51L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Crawley Town against 0.90 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 12W 14D 18L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.68 points per game from 44 outings (7W 9D 28L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.91 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 89 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 20W 23D 46L in their last 89 games (0.93 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 21W 17D 51L in their last 89 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Shrewsbury away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.14 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 59%, Shrewsbury 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crawley Town) and 52% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Shrewsbury?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Crawley Town's games and 57% of Shrewsbury's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crawley Town's recent games and 52% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Crawley Town and Shrewsbury drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.41 xG and Shrewsbury 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shrewsbury landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Shrewsbury attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 43% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 31%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.93 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.