Crawley Town 2-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Salford City at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to The People's Pension Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 League Two fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salford City have collected 1.00 PPG across 2 League Two outings this season: 0W 2D 0L. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Salford City are 1.00 PPG clear of Crawley Town in recent League Two fixtures (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.88 xG and Salford City 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | Salford City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.787 / away 0.929. Data: 1 Crawley Town games / 2 Salford City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 33% | Draw 33% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Salford City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Crawley Town's lower xG of 0.88 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 33% | Draw 33% | Salford City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Crawley Town 0.88 / Salford City 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | Salford City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.787 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Salford City (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Salford City xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Salford City kick off?
Crawley Town vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Crawley Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Salford City part of?
Crawley Town vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 33% chance of winning, Salford City a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Crawley Town and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Salford City (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.97) and Salford City's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.85x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
33%
3.06
33%
3.03
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.79
0.91
Salford City xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.91 for Salford City, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salford City's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Salford City are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Salford City in 0%.
Defensively: Salford City in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Salford City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Salford City have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Crawley Town or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Salford City in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
3
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Salford City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 0% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Crawley Town's recent games and 0% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Salford City tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Salford City in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Salford City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Salford City 2-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.88 xG and Salford City 0.91 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Salford City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 33% | Draw 33% | Salford City 34%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 0%, Salford City 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crawley Town scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Salford City scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.