Crawley Town 0-1 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Leyton Orient at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leyton Orient stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Leyton Orient have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leyton Orient's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Leyton Orient are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Leyton Orient 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Leyton Orient winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Leyton Orient trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 62% versus Leyton Orient 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Leyton Orient 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.11 xG and Leyton Orient 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.947 / defence 0.996 | Leyton Orient attack 1.023 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.077. Data: 47 Crawley Town games / 47 Leyton Orient games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Leyton Orient 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Leyton Orient 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Leyton Orient (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Leyton Orient 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Leyton Orient 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Crawley Town 1.11 / Leyton Orient 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.947 / def 0.996 | Leyton Orient attack 1.023 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Leyton Orient xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Leyton Orient.
Where is Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient part of?
Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crawley Town and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Leyton Orient?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Leyton Orient 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Leyton Orient in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Leyton Orient (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.95) and Leyton Orient's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.40
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.21
1.10
Leyton Orient xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.10 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leyton Orient, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 16L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Leyton Orient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.30 PPG, Leyton Orient on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leyton Orient's away record stands at 5W 11D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Leyton Orient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 15W 16D 16L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Leyton Orient away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.43 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Leyton Orient go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2024, when Leyton Orient won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Leyton Orient?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Leyton Orient have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Crawley Town 1-3 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Leyton Orient?
Leyton Orient have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Leyton Orient 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 30% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Leyton Orient in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Leyton Orient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 52% of Leyton Orient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 30% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leyton Orient defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.11 xG and Leyton Orient 1.10 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Leyton Orient attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Leyton Orient 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Leyton Orient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Leyton Orient 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.30 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.