Crawley Town 1-3 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Exeter City meet at The People's Pension Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 3W 2D 1L at The People's Pension Stadium — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Exeter City (all games): 3W 7D 0L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Exeter City have posted 1W 4D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Exeter City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Exeter City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 50% | Exeter City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.14 xG and Exeter City 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.993 / defence 1.178 | Exeter City attack 1.025 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.065. Data: 12 Crawley Town games / 12 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 31% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 38%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Exeter City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Exeter City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 67% | Exeter City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Exeter City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 31% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Crawley Town 1.14 / Exeter City 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.993 / def 1.178 | Exeter City attack 1.025 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Exeter City xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Exeter City kick off?
Crawley Town vs Exeter City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Exeter City?
Crawley Town 1 - 3 Exeter City.
Where is Crawley Town vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Exeter City part of?
Crawley Town vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 31% chance of winning, Exeter City a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crawley Town and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Exeter City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Exeter City in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Exeter City (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.99) and Exeter City's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (1.02x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.25
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.43
1.29
Exeter City xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.29 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 1L across 12 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.42 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Exeter City's away record stands at 1W 4D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 3W 8D 1L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Exeter City away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.83 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Exeter City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
2
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Exeter City?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Exeter City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 67%, Exeter City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Crawley Town) and 50% (Exeter City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Exeter City in 33%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 33% of games; Exeter City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Exeter City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Crawley Town's games and 50% of Exeter City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Crawley Town's matches and 50% of Exeter City's.
Do Crawley Town and Exeter City tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Exeter City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Crawley Town 1-3 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.14 xG and Exeter City 1.29 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Exeter City outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Exeter City attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 31% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 38%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 50%, Exeter City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Exeter City's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.42 PPG, Exeter City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.