Colchester 0-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Stockport County travel to JobServe Community Stadium to take on Colchester. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Colchester — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colchester have posted 2W 5D 3L at JobServe Community Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stockport County away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Colchester, 1 for Stockport County and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Colchester in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 49% versus Stockport County 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Colchester 34% | Stockport County 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 0.87 xG and Stockport County 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.780 / defence 0.963 | Stockport County attack 1.040 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.096. Colchester's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 81 Colchester games / 35 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 28% | Draw 33% | Stockport County 40%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Stockport County 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colchester 50% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 28% | Draw 33% | Stockport County 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Colchester 0.87 / Stockport County 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.780 / def 0.963 | Stockport County attack 1.040 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Stockport County xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Stockport County kick off?
Colchester vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Stockport County?
Colchester 0 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Colchester vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Stockport County part of?
Colchester vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 28% chance of winning, Stockport County a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Colchester and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Colchester and Stockport County in?
Colchester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Colchester's attack rating (0.78) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
28%
3.61
33%
3.06
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Colchester xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
Stockport County xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Colchester and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Colchester and 1.10 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Colchester come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 8D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (16W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Colchester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Colchester's home form reads 4W 7D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (7W 2D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Colchester are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.37 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.12 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Colchester or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Stockport County in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Colchester and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Colchester's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Colchester
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Colchester have won 0, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Colchester 1-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 53%, Stockport County 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Colchester) and 53% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Colchester's recent matches and 53% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Colchester's recent games and 53% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Stockport County tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Colchester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Colchester 0-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 0.87 xG and Stockport County 1.10 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colchester fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against Stockport County attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 81/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 28% | Draw 33% | Stockport County 40%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Stockport County 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.