Colchester 0-2 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Colchester at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 41 as Colchester welcome Stevenage to JobServe Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Colchester — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Colchester at JobServe Community Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Colchester have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Colchester, 1 for Stevenage and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Colchester in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 51% versus Stevenage 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 44% | Stevenage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.19 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.862 / defence 1.174 | Stevenage attack 0.683 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.099. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Colchester games / 39 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 42% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 26%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 60% | Stevenage 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 42% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Colchester 1.19 / Stevenage 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.862 / def 1.174 | Stevenage attack 0.683 / def 1.389 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Colchester (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stevenage xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Stevenage kick off?
Colchester vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Stevenage?
Colchester 0 - 2 Stevenage.
Where is Colchester vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Stevenage part of?
Colchester vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 42% chance of winning, Stevenage a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Colchester and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Colchester and Stevenage in?
Colchester (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Colchester's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.17
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.07
0.88
Stevenage xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Colchester and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Colchester and 0.88 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester's recent record stands at 11W 11D 17L from 39 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 19L across 39 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.13 PPG, Stevenage on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Colchester have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 1W 7D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colchester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.87 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 39 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 7W 13D 19L in their last 39 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Stevenage away?
Colchester's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.21 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Colchester's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Colchester
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Colchester have won 0, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Stevenage 1-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 63%, Stevenage 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Colchester) and 47% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Colchester's recent matches and 37% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Colchester's recent games and 47% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Colchester 0-2 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.19 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Colchester fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stevenage outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Stevenage attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 42% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 44%, Stevenage 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.13 PPG, Stevenage 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.