Chesterfield 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chesterfield at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 32 as Chesterfield welcome Harrogate Town to SMH Group Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Chesterfield have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 League Two matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Harrogate Town away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chesterfield are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chesterfield register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Harrogate Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chesterfield, 1 for Harrogate Town and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Chesterfield winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 56% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 54% | Harrogate Town 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.58 xG and Harrogate Town 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.210 / defence 0.936 | Harrogate Town attack 0.677 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Data: 76 Chesterfield games / 77 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 57% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Harrogate Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chesterfield (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chesterfield are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chesterfield 60% | Harrogate Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 57% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Chesterfield 1.58 / Harrogate Town 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.210 / def 0.936 | Harrogate Town attack 0.677 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Harrogate Town xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town?
Chesterfield 1 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town part of?
Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 57% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chesterfield and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Harrogate Town?
Record (3 meetings): Chesterfield 1W | Draws 1 | Harrogate Town 1W.
What form are Chesterfield and Harrogate Town in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chesterfield's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.98
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.34
0.76
Harrogate Town xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
27.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Chesterfield and 0.76 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, Chesterfield have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 31W 24D 22L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Harrogate Town's form line: 19W 17D 41L from 77 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Chesterfield are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Harrogate Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chesterfield have posted 1.70 PPG from 37 outings (16W 15D 6L).
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 6W 11D 20L from 37 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chesterfield are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.84 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 31W 24D 22L in their last 77 games (1.52 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 19W 17D 41L in their last 77 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Harrogate Town away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.70 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chesterfield and Harrogate Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chesterfield's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chesterfield
2
Draws
1
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Harrogate Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 1, Harrogate Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Chesterfield 1-1 Harrogate Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 65%, Harrogate Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chesterfield) and 30% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 43% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Chesterfield's recent games and 30% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chesterfield and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.58 xG and Harrogate Town 0.76 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against Harrogate Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 76/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 57% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 18%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.