Chesterfield 2-1 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chesterfield face Grimsby.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chesterfield and Grimsby meet at SMH Group Stadium in League Two (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Chesterfield have collected 1.25 PPG across their last 4 games: 1W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.75 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Grimsby's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Grimsby have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.25 for Chesterfield, 1.50 for Grimsby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Chesterfield half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Grimsby half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chesterfield 50% and Grimsby 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 25% | Grimsby 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.40 xG and Grimsby 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.842 / defence 1.113 | Grimsby attack 0.801 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.211. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 4 games and Grimsby's last 50.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.25 | Draw 3.75 | Grimsby 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chesterfield if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 50% (last 4 games) | Grimsby 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, matchday 5 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Chesterfield 1.40 / Grimsby 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.842 / def 1.113 | Grimsby attack 0.801 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Grimsby xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chesterfield vs Grimsby FAQs
What time does Chesterfield vs Grimsby kick off?
Chesterfield vs Grimsby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 September 2024 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
Chesterfield 2 - 1 Grimsby.
Where is Chesterfield vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Grimsby part of?
Chesterfield vs Grimsby is a League Two fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 44% chance of winning, Grimsby a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chesterfield and Grimsby will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Chesterfield vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chesterfield's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Grimsby's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Grimsby's attack (0.80x) against Chesterfield's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Chesterfield's last 4 games and Grimsby's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.75
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.48
1.08
Grimsby xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chesterfield vs Grimsby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.08 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chesterfield come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Chesterfield against 1.50 for Grimsby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chesterfield are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grimsby in 75%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Early Season
Grimsby
Early Season
Chesterfield (Home) vs Grimsby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chesterfield
Early Season
Grimsby
Early Season
❓ Chesterfield vs Grimsby Form FAQs
What form are Chesterfield and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 14 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Chesterfield have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chesterfield have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Grimsby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Chesterfield
1
Draws
0
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Chesterfield vs Grimsby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Grimsby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chesterfield have won 3, Grimsby have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Grimsby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2026: Chesterfield 2-1 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Grimsby?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 50%, Grimsby 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chesterfield) and 75% (Grimsby).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chesterfield vs Grimsby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chesterfield and Grimsby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chesterfield's games and 75% of Grimsby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chesterfield and Grimsby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chesterfield's recent games and 75% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Grimsby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 100% of Grimsby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Grimsby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Grimsby 2-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.40 xG and Grimsby 1.08 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Grimsby attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 25%, Grimsby 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Grimsby's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.25 PPG, Grimsby 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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