Cheltenham 3-5 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cheltenham face Notts County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to EV Charger Points Stadium to face Cheltenham in League Two (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Cheltenham (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cheltenham at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Notts County's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Notts County away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.50 for Notts County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cheltenham's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) — Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Notts County in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 57% versus Notts County 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 49% | Notts County 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.32 xG and Notts County 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.941 / defence 1.000 | Notts County attack 1.091 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.162. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 22 games and Notts County's last 67.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.71 | Draw 3.51 | Notts County 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 60% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, matchday 23 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Cheltenham 1.32 / Notts County 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.941 / def 1.000 | Notts County attack 1.091 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Notts County xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Notts County FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Notts County kick off?
Cheltenham vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Cheltenham 3 - 5 Notts County.
Where is Cheltenham vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Notts County part of?
Cheltenham vs Notts County is a League Two fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 37% chance of winning, Notts County a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cheltenham and Notts County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cheltenham vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.09x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 22 games and Notts County's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.51
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.58
1.27
Notts County xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Notts County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.27 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 20W 14D 33L from 67 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 26L across 67 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.42 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 13W 7D 15L from their last 35 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 10W 10D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.78 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 61%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Notts County
Blended
Cheltenham (Home) vs Notts County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Cheltenham vs Notts County Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Notts County in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 20W 14D 33L in their last 67 games (1.10 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 14D 26L in their last 67 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Notts County away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.31 PPG; Notts County away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Cheltenham and Notts County, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Notts County have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cheltenham
0
Draws
3
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Notts County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Notts County?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 1, Notts County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Notts County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 51%, Notts County 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cheltenham) and 57% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Notts County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Notts County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Cheltenham's games and 66% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cheltenham and Notts County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cheltenham's recent games and 57% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Notts County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 80% of Notts County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Cheltenham 3-5 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.32 xG and Notts County 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Notts County attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 49%, Notts County 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (67 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (67 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Notts County 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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