Carlisle 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Carlisle welcome Walsall to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 6W 3D 1L at Brunton Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brunton Park.
Walsall — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Walsall have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Carlisle) versus 1.50 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Carlisle, 1 for Walsall and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Walsall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Carlisle in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 44% versus Walsall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 48% | Walsall 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.36 xG and Walsall 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.109 / defence 1.066 | Walsall attack 0.861 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. Data: 63 Carlisle games / 63 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 46% | Draw 28% | Walsall 26%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Walsall 3.85. Carlisle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carlisle are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Carlisle 50% | Walsall 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 46% | Draw 28% | Walsall 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Carlisle 1.36 / Walsall 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.109 / def 1.066 | Walsall attack 0.861 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Walsall xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Walsall kick off?
Carlisle vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Walsall?
Carlisle 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Carlisle vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Walsall part of?
Carlisle vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 46% chance of winning, Walsall a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Carlisle and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Walsall?
Record (2 meetings): Carlisle 1W | Draws 0 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Walsall in?
Carlisle (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Walsall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 1.11x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.57
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.32
0.95
Walsall xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.95 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 18D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.22 PPG from 63 outings (20W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.29 PPG, Walsall on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Carlisle's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (5W 10D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Walsall's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.08 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Walsall in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 21W 18D 24L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Walsall have gone 20W 17D 26L in their last 63 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Walsall away?
Carlisle's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.48 PPG; Walsall away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Walsall in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Carlisle's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Carlisle
3
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Walsall?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, Walsall have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Carlisle 1-1 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 39%, Walsall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Carlisle and 32% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 36% of games; Walsall in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Carlisle's recent matches and 48% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Carlisle's recent games and 32% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Carlisle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Walsall finished level at 0-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.36 xG and Walsall 0.95 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carlisle fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Walsall attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 46% | Draw 28% | Walsall 26%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 48%, Walsall 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.29 PPG, Walsall 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.