Carlisle 2-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Carlisle take on Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 43 as Carlisle welcome Stockport County to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 6W 2D 2L at Brunton Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brunton Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stockport County have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carlisle 1.60 PPG, Stockport County 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carlisle, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 43% versus Stockport County 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carlisle 40% | Stockport County 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.95 xG and Stockport County 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.036 / defence 0.767 | Stockport County attack 1.013 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.052. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Carlisle's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 88 Carlisle games / 42 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 35% | Draw 37% | Stockport County 28%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Stockport County 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 20% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 35% | Draw 37% | Stockport County 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Carlisle 0.95 / Stockport County 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.036 / def 0.767 | Stockport County attack 1.013 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Stockport County xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Stockport County kick off?
Carlisle vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Carlisle 2 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Carlisle vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Stockport County part of?
Carlisle vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 35% chance of winning, Stockport County a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Carlisle and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Stockport County in?
Carlisle (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
37%
2.70
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.77
0.82
Stockport County xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 13.9 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.82 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle's recent record stands at 19W 14D 9L from 42 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 11L across 42 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.69 PPG, Stockport County on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 11W 7D 3L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 10W 3D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.38 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Stockport County in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 19W 14D 9L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Stockport County away?
Carlisle's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.90 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Stockport County in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Carlisle's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Carlisle
2
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stockport County?
From 3 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 0, Stockport County have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Carlisle 1-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 33%, Stockport County 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Carlisle) and 43% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Stockport County in 38%; Carlisle have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carlisle's recent matches and 48% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Carlisle's recent games and 43% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Stockport County tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle and Stockport County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Stockport County finished level at 2-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.95 xG and Stockport County 0.82 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 35% | Draw 37% | Stockport County 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 40%, Stockport County 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.69 PPG, Stockport County 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carlisle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.