Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brunton Park plays host to Carlisle versus Port Vale in League Two (matchday 43). Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Carlisle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Carlisle's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Port Vale have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Port Vale are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Carlisle's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Carlisle's games and 80% of Port Vale's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Port Vale edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended Carlisle 0–0 Port Vale — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Carlisle half-time and goal-timing data (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 51% versus Port Vale 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 46% | Port Vale 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.08 xG and Port Vale 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.807 / defence 1.321 | Port Vale attack 1.047 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.120. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port Vale's projected output up. Data: built from Carlisle's last 42 games and Port Vale's last 42.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 48%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.84 | Draw 3.83 | Port Vale 2.09. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carlisle 70% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, matchday 43 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Carlisle 1.08 / Port Vale 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.807 / def 1.321 | Port Vale attack 1.047 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Port Vale xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Port Vale kick off?
Carlisle vs Port Vale kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Carlisle 3 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Carlisle vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Port Vale part of?
Carlisle vs Port Vale is a League Two fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 26% chance of winning, Port Vale a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Carlisle and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Carlisle vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Carlisle's attack rating (0.81) and Port Vale's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (1.05x) against Carlisle's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 42 games and Port Vale's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
26%
3.84
26%
3.83
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.63
1.55
Port Vale xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.55 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carlisle's recent record stands at 16W 19D 53L from 88 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 31W 24D 33L across 88 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 7W 13D 24L from their last 44 home games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 13W 14D 17L across their last 44 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.14 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Carlisle (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 16W 19D 53L in their last 88 games (0.76 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 31W 24D 33L in their last 88 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 0.77 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Port Vale in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carlisle have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Carlisle
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 59%, Port Vale 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Carlisle) and 43% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Carlisle have failed to score in 36% of games; Port Vale in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Carlisle's recent matches and 43% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Carlisle's recent games and 43% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Carlisle's recent matches and 54% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Port Vale 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Port Vale 3-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.08 xG and Port Vale 1.55 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Port Vale attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 26% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 48%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Carlisle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 46%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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