Carlisle 0-0 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Carlisle at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 26 as Carlisle welcome Hartlepool to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's home record at Brunton Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hartlepool — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Hartlepool have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Carlisle have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Carlisle's 30% rate and Hartlepool's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Carlisle, 1 for Hartlepool and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Hartlepool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Hartlepool in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 38% versus Hartlepool 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 42% | Hartlepool 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.30 xG and Hartlepool 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.743 / defence 0.972 | Hartlepool attack 0.645 / defence 1.554. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.140. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.554 — this is suppressing Carlisle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Carlisle games / 24 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 48% | Draw 34% | Hartlepool 18%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Hartlepool 5.56. Carlisle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 30% | Hartlepool 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 48% | Draw 34% | Hartlepool 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Carlisle 1.30 / Hartlepool 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.743 / def 0.972 | Hartlepool attack 0.645 / def 1.554 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hartlepool xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Hartlepool kick off?
Carlisle vs Hartlepool kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Carlisle 0 - 0 Hartlepool.
Where is Carlisle vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Hartlepool part of?
Carlisle vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 48% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Carlisle and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Hartlepool?
Record (1 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 0 | Hartlepool 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Hartlepool in?
Carlisle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Hartlepool (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.74x the league average against Hartlepool's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hartlepool's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
48%
2.08
34%
2.95
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.01
0.71
Hartlepool xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
5%
20.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.71 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle's recent record stands at 6W 8D 10L from 24 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 12L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.08 PPG, Hartlepool on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hartlepool's away record stands at 1W 1D 10L across 12 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 24 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Hartlepool away?
Carlisle's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.25 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Carlisle have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Carlisle's record when hosting Hartlepool specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carlisle
1
Draws
1
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 2, Hartlepool have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2023, when Carlisle 3-1 Hartlepool.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Hartlepool?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Carlisle 33% BTTS, Hartlepool 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Carlisle and 42% for Hartlepool.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 50% of games; Hartlepool in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carlisle's recent matches and 33% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Carlisle's recent games and 42% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carlisle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Hartlepool finished level at 0-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.30 xG and Hartlepool 0.71 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carlisle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Hartlepool attack 0.65 / defence 1.55, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 48% | Draw 34% | Hartlepool 18%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 42%, Hartlepool 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hartlepool's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.08 PPG, Hartlepool 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Hartlepool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.