Carlisle 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carlisle host Crawley Town at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Carlisle haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 5W 0D 5L at Brunton Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Crawley Town's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carlisle 1.30 PPG, Crawley Town 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Carlisle have won 0, Crawley Town 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Crawley Town trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 39% versus Crawley Town 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 48% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.39 xG and Crawley Town 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.907 / defence 0.956 | Crawley Town attack 1.037 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.128. Data: 46 Carlisle games / 46 Crawley Town games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 43% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carlisle are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 40% | Crawley Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 43% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Carlisle 1.39 / Crawley Town 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.907 / def 0.956 | Crawley Town attack 1.037 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Crawley Town xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Crawley Town kick off?
Carlisle vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Carlisle 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Carlisle vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Crawley Town part of?
Carlisle vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 43% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carlisle and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Crawley Town in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Carlisle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.76
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
Crawley Town xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.12 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 11D 21L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. Carlisle haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (17W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. Crawley Town haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.15 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Carlisle's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 63%.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Pre-Season
Crawley Town
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Crawley Town away?
Carlisle's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.35 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Carlisle go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Carlisle won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carlisle's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carlisle
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 2, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Crawley Town 2-5 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Crawley Town?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 35%, Crawley Town 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Carlisle) and 56% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Carlisle's recent matches and 65% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Carlisle's recent games and 56% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carlisle edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.39 xG and Crawley Town 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 43% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 30%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 48%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.15 PPG, Crawley Town 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.