Bradford 1-3 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bradford face Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Walsall travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford in League Two (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bradford have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bradford's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bradford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Walsall — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Walsall's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.30 PPG, Walsall 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Bradford have won 2, Walsall 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Mar 2023, ended Bradford 0–0 Walsall — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Walsall trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 49% versus Walsall 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 42% | Walsall 40%). Note also that Walsall surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Bradford recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.56 xG and Walsall 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.928 / defence 0.871 | Walsall attack 0.931 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.266. Data: built from Bradford's last 55 games and Walsall's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bradford 49% | Draw 26% | Walsall 24%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.03 | Draw 3.80 | Walsall 4.10. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bradford 70% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 10 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 49% | Draw 26% | Walsall 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Bradford 1.56 / Walsall 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.928 / def 0.871 | Walsall attack 0.931 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Bradford (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Walsall xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Walsall FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Walsall kick off?
Bradford vs Walsall kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Walsall?
Bradford 1 - 3 Walsall.
Where is Bradford vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Walsall part of?
Bradford vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 49% chance of winning, Walsall a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bradford and Walsall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bradford vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.93x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 55 games and Walsall's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.80
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.59
1.03
Walsall xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bradford and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bradford and 1.03 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 24W 19D 12L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Walsall's form line: 15W 21D 19L from 55 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Walsall.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 11D 4L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 3W 11D 13L from their last 27 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Walsall's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.05 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Walsall
Blended
Bradford (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Bradford vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Walsall in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 24W 19D 12L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Walsall have gone 15W 21D 19L in their last 55 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Walsall away?
Bradford's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.74 PPG; Walsall away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Bradford or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Walsall in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jan 2025, when Bradford won Bradford 3-0 Walsall.
Bradford's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bradford
2
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Walsall?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 4, Walsall have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Bradford 3-0 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Walsall?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 59%, Walsall 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bradford) and 44% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Walsall in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Walsall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bradford's games and 56% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bradford's recent games and 44% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Bradford's recent matches and 63% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Bradford 1-3 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.56 xG and Walsall 1.03 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Walsall attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 49% | Draw 26% | Walsall 24%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Walsall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 42%, Walsall 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Walsall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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