Bradford 1-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port Vale at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Utilita Energy Stadium plays host to Bradford versus Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bradford's home record at The Utilita Energy Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Port Vale have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Port Vale are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bradford register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Port Vale in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bradford 0W, Port Vale 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 60% versus Port Vale 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bradford 40% | Port Vale 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 0.91 xG and Port Vale 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.807 / defence 1.403 | Port Vale attack 0.935 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.112. Data: 37 Bradford games / 35 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 21% | Draw 31% | Port Vale 48%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Port Vale 2.08. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bradford 70% | Port Vale 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 21% | Draw 31% | Port Vale 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bradford 0.91 / Port Vale 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.807 / def 1.403 | Port Vale attack 0.935 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Port Vale xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Port Vale kick off?
Bradford vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Port Vale?
Bradford 1 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Bradford vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Port Vale part of?
Bradford vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 21% chance of winning, Port Vale a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bradford and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 1 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Bradford and Port Vale in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Port Vale (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.81x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.94x) against Bradford's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
21%
4.66
31%
3.25
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.37
1.46
Port Vale xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bradford and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Bradford and 1.46 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bradford's recent record stands at 10W 12D 13L from 35 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 9L across 35 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bradford heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bradford have managed 3W 8D 6L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bradford are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 15W 11D 9L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.00 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Bradford or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Port Vale in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bradford go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bradford
1
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 3, Port Vale have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Port Vale 0-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Port Vale?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Bradford, 71% for Port Vale — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bradford) and 41% (Port Vale).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Bradford's games and 71% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bradford's recent games and 41% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Port Vale tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Bradford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Bradford 1-2 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.91 xG and Port Vale 1.46 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 1.40 against Port Vale attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 21% | Draw 31% | Port Vale 48%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 40%, Port Vale 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.