Accrington ST 0-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Salford City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Salford City in League Two (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salford City (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Accrington ST, 1.50 for Salford City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Salford City's last 10 away games) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Salford City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Accrington ST, 0 for Salford City and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2024, ended Accrington ST 3–0 Salford City — a Accrington ST win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 63% and Salford City 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 65% | Salford City 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.27 xG and Salford City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.025 / defence 1.119 | Salford City attack 0.895 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.194. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 65 games and Salford City's last 65.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 38% | Draw 28% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.65 | Draw 3.53 | Salford City 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 70% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 21 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 38% | Draw 28% | Salford City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Accrington ST 1.27 / Salford City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.025 / def 1.119 | Salford City attack 0.895 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Salford City xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Salford City kick off?
Accrington ST vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Accrington ST 0 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Accrington ST vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Salford City part of?
Accrington ST vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 38% chance of winning, Salford City a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Accrington ST and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Accrington ST vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (1.02) and Salford City's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.90x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 65 games and Salford City's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.53
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.47
1.20
Salford City xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.20 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 16D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.20 PPG from 65 outings (20W 18D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.20 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 10D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 10D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.32 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Salford City in 62%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Salford City
Blended
Accrington ST (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Accrington ST vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Salford City in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Salford City have gone 20W 18D 27L in their last 65 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Salford City away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.44 PPG; Salford City away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Accrington ST and Salford City, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 5 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Accrington ST won Accrington ST 3-0 Salford City on 1 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Salford City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 4, Salford City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 February 2026: Accrington ST 1-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Salford City?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Salford City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 53%, Salford City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Accrington ST) and 47% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 28% of games; Salford City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Salford City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 56% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Accrington ST's recent games and 47% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 56% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Accrington ST 0-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.27 xG and Salford City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Salford City outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Salford City attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 38% | Draw 28% | Salford City 34%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 65%, Salford City 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Salford City's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.17 PPG, Salford City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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