Wigan 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wigan face Lincoln.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Lincoln meet at The Brick Community Stadium in League One (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Wigan have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wigan's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lincoln (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Wigan, 1 for Lincoln and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Wigan 0–0 Lincoln — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 47% versus Lincoln 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 44% | Lincoln 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.06 xG and Lincoln 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.841 / defence 1.092 | Lincoln attack 0.743 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.186. Lincoln's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Wigan's last 73 games and Lincoln's last 74.
Result probabilities: Wigan 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.69 | Draw 3.27 | Lincoln 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wigan's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 40% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 30 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Wigan 1.06 / Lincoln 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.841 / def 1.092 | Lincoln attack 0.743 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Wigan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lincoln xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Lincoln kick off?
Wigan vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Wigan 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Wigan vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Lincoln part of?
Wigan vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 37% chance of winning, Lincoln a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wigan and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Wigan vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wigan's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.74x) against Wigan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 73 games and Lincoln's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.27
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
Lincoln xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Wigan and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Wigan and 0.96 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan's recent record stands at 29W 16D 28L from 73 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 30W 22D 21L across 73 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Wigan against 1.53 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 17W 7D 12L from their last 36 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 14W 12D 10L across their last 36 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.36 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Lincoln
Current Season
Wigan (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Blended
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Wigan vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 29W 16D 28L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 30W 22D 21L in their last 73 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Lincoln away?
Wigan's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.61 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Wigan or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Wigan and Lincoln, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wigan
4
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 2, Lincoln have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 36%, Lincoln 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Wigan) and 33% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%; Wigan have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Wigan's recent matches and 47% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Wigan's recent games and 33% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Wigan's recent matches and 61% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Wigan and Lincoln drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.06 xG and Lincoln 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Lincoln attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Lincoln 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.41 PPG, Lincoln 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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