Stockport County 0-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.50 (Wigan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wigan trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Wigan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 54% | Wigan 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.09 xG and Wigan 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.961 / defence 1.263 | Wigan attack 1.056 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.256. Data: 8 Stockport County games / 55 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 24% | Draw 25% | Wigan 51%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Wigan 1.96. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 30% | Wigan 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 24% | Draw 25% | Wigan 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Stockport County 1.09 / Wigan 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.961 / def 1.263 | Wigan attack 1.056 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Wigan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Wigan xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Wigan kick off?
Stockport County vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Stockport County vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wigan part of?
Stockport County vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 24% chance of winning, Wigan a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stockport County and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Wigan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
24%
4.11
25%
3.98
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.77
1.68
Wigan xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
21.93
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.68 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 14D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (22W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 17W 5D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.30 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Wigan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 31W 14D 9L in their last 54 games (1.98 PPG), while Wigan have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wigan away?
Stockport County's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.15 PPG; Wigan away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Wigan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Wigan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Stockport County 4-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Wigan?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 35%, Wigan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stockport County) and 54% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Stockport County's recent matches and 65% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stockport County's recent games and 54% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Wigan tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wigan in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Wigan finished level at 0-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.09 xG and Wigan 1.68 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Wigan landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Wigan attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 8/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 24% | Draw 25% | Wigan 51%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 54%, Wigan 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wigan's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.