Stockport County 3-2 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face Rotherham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Rotherham travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Rotherham have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Stockport County are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stockport County have won 2, Rotherham 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Rotherham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.50 xG and Rotherham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.993 / defence 1.144 | Rotherham attack 0.720 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.102. Data: 71 Stockport County games / 70 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 23%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Rotherham 4.35. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Rotherham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Stockport County 1.50 / Rotherham 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.993 / def 1.144 | Rotherham attack 0.720 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rotherham xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Rotherham kick off?
Stockport County vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Rotherham?
Stockport County 3 - 2 Rotherham.
Where is Stockport County vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Rotherham part of?
Stockport County vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 51% chance of winning, Rotherham a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stockport County and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Rotherham?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 1 | Rotherham 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Rotherham in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Rotherham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.99x the league average against Rotherham's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.83
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.41
0.91
Rotherham xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.91 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 34W 20D 16L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham's form line: 22W 17D 31L from 70 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rotherham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.94 PPG from 35 outings (20W 8D 7L).
On the road, Rotherham have gone 7W 8D 20L from 35 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.09 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 34W 20D 16L in their last 70 games (1.74 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Rotherham away?
Stockport County's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.94 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rotherham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Stockport County's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stockport County
1
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 3, Rotherham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stockport County 3-2 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Rotherham?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 60%, Rotherham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stockport County) and 34% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Rotherham in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Stockport County's recent matches and 40% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stockport County's recent games and 34% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Rotherham tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Rotherham 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Rotherham 3-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.50 xG and Rotherham 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rotherham outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Rotherham attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 51% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 23%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Rotherham 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rotherham's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.