Stockport County 2-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Northampton at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Northampton — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Northampton away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Northampton and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Northampton in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Northampton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | Northampton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.77 xG and Northampton 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.117 / defence 1.067 | Northampton attack 0.661 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Data: 81 Stockport County games / 83 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 23% | Northampton 17%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Northampton 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 70% | Northampton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 23% | Northampton 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Stockport County 1.77 / Northampton 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.117 / def 1.067 | Northampton attack 0.661 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Northampton xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Northampton kick off?
Stockport County vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Northampton?
Stockport County 2 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Stockport County vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Northampton part of?
Stockport County vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 60% chance of winning, Northampton a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stockport County and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Northampton?
Record (5 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 3 | Northampton 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Northampton in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Northampton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.12x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.33
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.59
0.83
Northampton xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
3%
34.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.83 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Northampton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 41W 22D 20L from 83 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 39L across 83 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Northampton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 25W 9D 7L from 41 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 8W 12D 21L across 41 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 0.95 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Northampton in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 41W 22D 20L in their last 83 games (1.75 PPG), while Northampton have gone 21W 23D 39L in their last 83 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Northampton away?
Stockport County's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.05 PPG; Northampton away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Northampton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stockport County
3
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Northampton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Stockport County 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Northampton?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 58%, Northampton 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stockport County) and 49% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Northampton in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stockport County's recent matches and 49% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stockport County's recent games and 49% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Northampton tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Northampton in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Northampton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Northampton 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.77 xG and Northampton 0.83 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Northampton attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 81/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 60% | Draw 23% | Northampton 17%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, Northampton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Northampton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.