Stockport County 3-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stockport County at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 40 as Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L at Edgeley Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.50 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stockport County register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, AFC Wimbledon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | AFC Wimbledon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.09 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.107 / defence 1.083 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.005 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.151. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 83 Stockport County games / 38 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | AFC Wimbledon 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | AFC Wimbledon 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 80% | AFC Wimbledon 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | AFC Wimbledon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Stockport County 2.09 / AFC Wimbledon 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.107 / def 1.083 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.005 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.25
AFC Wimbledon xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 March 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County 3 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 57% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Stockport County 3W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.11) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
57%
1.77
21%
4.78
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.34
1.25
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
3%
36.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.25 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 42W 23D 20L from 85 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 36W 21D 28L across 85 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.75 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 26W 9D 7L from 42 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 14W 12D 16L across 42 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.22 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 42W 23D 20L in their last 85 games (1.75 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 36W 21D 28L in their last 85 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Stockport County's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.07 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Stockport County or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 5, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 60%, AFC Wimbledon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Stockport County) and 43% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Stockport County's recent matches and 48% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Stockport County's recent games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 3-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.09 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 83/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | AFC Wimbledon 22%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, AFC Wimbledon 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.75 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.