Stevenage 0-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Stockport County meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 8W 1D 1L at Lamex Stadium — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (92 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (92 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Stockport County 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.26 xG and Stockport County 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.878 / defence 0.652 | Stockport County attack 1.118 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 92 Stevenage games / 92 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 45% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 27%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Stockport County 3.70. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Stockport County 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Semi-finals | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 45% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Stevenage 1.26 / Stockport County 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.878 / def 0.652 | Stockport County attack 1.118 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stockport County xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Stockport County kick off?
Stevenage vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Stevenage vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Stockport County part of?
Stevenage vs Stockport County is a Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 45% chance of winning, Stockport County a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stevenage and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 4W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.12x) against Stevenage's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 92/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.16
0.90
Stockport County xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.90 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 92 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 36W 24D 32L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 45W 25D 22L from 92 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Stevenage against 1.74 for Stockport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.76 PPG from 46 outings (23W 12D 11L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 17W 16D 13L from 46 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.53 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 92 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 36W 24D 32L in their last 92 games (1.43 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 45W 25D 22L in their last 92 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Stockport County away?
Stevenage's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.76 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Stockport County in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stevenage
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Stockport County 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Stevenage) and 44% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 59% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Stevenage's recent games and 44% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Stockport County tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Stevenage 0-1 at Lamex Stadium, Semi-finals, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.26 xG and Stockport County 0.90 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.65 against Stockport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 45% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 27%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.43 PPG, Stockport County 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.