Shrewsbury 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sunderland make the trip to Montgomery Waters Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shrewsbury (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 games at Montgomery Waters Meadow this term (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Sunderland are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 62% versus Sunderland 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 50% | Sunderland 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.91 xG and Sunderland 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.015 / defence 1.109 | Sunderland attack 0.893 / defence 1.630. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.295. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.630 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Shrewsbury games / 16 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 52% | Draw 22% | Sunderland 26%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Sunderland 3.85. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 62% | Sunderland 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 52% | Draw 22% | Sunderland 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Shrewsbury 1.91 / Sunderland 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.015 / def 1.109 | Sunderland attack 0.893 / def 1.630 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Sunderland xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Sunderland kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Sunderland?
Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Sunderland part of?
Shrewsbury vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 52% chance of winning, Sunderland a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Shrewsbury and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Sunderland in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.89x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.49
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
3.19
1.28
Sunderland xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
4%
26.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.28 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 4W 3D 9L from 16 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 10W 1D 5L across 16 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sunderland's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shrewsbury have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 10W 1D 5L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Sunderland away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.86 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Sunderland 3-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 71%, Sunderland 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Shrewsbury and 86% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Shrewsbury's games and 43% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shrewsbury's matches and 86% of Sunderland's.
Do Shrewsbury and Sunderland tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 19, as Shrewsbury and Sunderland drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.91 xG and Sunderland 1.28 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Sunderland attack 0.89 / defence 1.63, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 52% | Draw 22% | Sunderland 26%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 50%, Sunderland 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.