Portsmouth 1-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Shrewsbury travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Portsmouth have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fratton Park, Portsmouth have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.80 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Portsmouth, 0 for Shrewsbury and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Portsmouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 50% versus Shrewsbury 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | Shrewsbury 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.208 / defence 0.895 | Shrewsbury attack 0.842 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.238. Data: 60 Portsmouth games / 61 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 24%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Shrewsbury 4.17. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Portsmouth 90% | Shrewsbury 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Portsmouth 1.46 / Shrewsbury 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.208 / def 0.895 | Shrewsbury attack 0.842 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Shrewsbury xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Portsmouth 1 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury part of?
Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 49% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Portsmouth and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
Record (2 meetings): Portsmouth 2W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Shrewsbury (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.21x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.77
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.39
0.93
Shrewsbury xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.93 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 27W 18D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shrewsbury's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 6W 9D 15L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.03 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 27W 18D 15L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Shrewsbury away?
Portsmouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Portsmouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Portsmouth
2
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 60%, Shrewsbury 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Portsmouth) and 33% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 33%; Shrewsbury in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 40% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Portsmouth's recent games and 33% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 17, as Portsmouth and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 0.93 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.21 / defence 0.90 against Shrewsbury attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 24%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.