Portsmouth 4-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Accrington ST travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Accrington ST — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.40 PPG, Accrington ST 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Portsmouth, 0 for Accrington ST and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 46% versus Accrington ST 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Accrington ST 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.93 xG and Accrington ST 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.217 / defence 1.232 | Accrington ST attack 0.531 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.253. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Portsmouth games / 34 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 63% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 14%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Accrington ST 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 70% | Accrington ST 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 63% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Portsmouth 1.93 / Accrington ST 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.217 / def 1.232 | Accrington ST attack 0.531 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Accrington ST xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Accrington ST kick off?
Portsmouth vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Accrington ST?
Portsmouth 4 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Portsmouth vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Accrington ST part of?
Portsmouth vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 63% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Portsmouth and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Portsmouth and Accrington ST in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.22) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.39
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.75
0.82
Accrington ST xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
2%
47.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.82 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 14W 9D 10L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 13W 7D 13L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.55 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.30 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 games (1.55 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Accrington ST away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.67 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and Accrington ST runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Portsmouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Portsmouth
1
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 3, Accrington ST have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Portsmouth 1-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Accrington ST?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Accrington ST see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 60%, Accrington ST 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Portsmouth) and 40% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Accrington ST in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 33% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Portsmouth's matches and 40% of Accrington ST's.
Do Portsmouth and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Accrington ST 4-0 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.93 xG and Accrington ST 0.82 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Accrington ST landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Accrington ST attack 0.53 / defence 1.41, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 63% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 14%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Accrington ST 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.55 PPG, Accrington ST 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.