Plymouth 1-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Wigan in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Home Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wigan's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's away record: 6W 1D 1L from 8 road trips in League One this season (2.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Plymouth against 1.90 for Wigan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 65% versus Wigan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 65% | Wigan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.16 xG and Wigan 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.018 / defence 1.075 | Wigan attack 1.274 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.324. Wigan have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Plymouth games / 17 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 23% | Wigan 53%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Wigan 1.89. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Wigan 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 23% | Wigan 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Plymouth 1.16 / Wigan 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.018 / def 1.075 | Wigan attack 1.274 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Wigan (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Wigan xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Wigan kick off?
Plymouth vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Wigan?
Plymouth 1 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Plymouth vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Wigan part of?
Plymouth vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 24% chance of winning, Wigan a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plymouth and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Wigan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Wigan in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Wigan (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (1.27x) against Plymouth's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 19/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
24%
4.14
23%
4.32
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.97
1.81
Wigan xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
4%
25.40
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.81 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 9W 6D 2L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan's form line: 11W 2D 4L from 17 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Plymouth against 2.06 for Wigan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.12 PPG from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 6W 1D 1L from 8 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.88 scored and 0.88 conceded. Plymouth's scoring rate against Wigan's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wigan in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Wigan in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 9W 6D 2L in their last 17 games (1.94 PPG), while Wigan have gone 11W 2D 4L in their last 17 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.12 PPG; Wigan away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Wigan in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plymouth won 0-3 on 10 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Wigan?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Wigan have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Wigan 0-3 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 62%, Wigan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Plymouth and 62% for Wigan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wigan in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Plymouth's games and 50% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Plymouth's matches and 62% of Wigan's.
Do Plymouth and Wigan tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wigan in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Plymouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.16 xG and Wigan 1.81 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Wigan attack 1.27 / defence 0.97, drawn from 19/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 24% | Draw 23% | Wigan 53%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 65%, Wigan 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.94 PPG, Wigan 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wigan win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.