Plymouth 0-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Rotherham in League One, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rotherham's overall League One record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Rotherham are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Rotherham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Rotherham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 59% versus Rotherham 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Rotherham 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.62 xG and Rotherham 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.938 / defence 1.075 | Rotherham attack 1.037 / defence 0.598. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Rotherham's defence strength of 0.598 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Plymouth games / 33 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 16% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 54%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Rotherham 1.85. Rotherham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Plymouth's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rotherham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Rotherham 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 16% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Plymouth 0.62 / Rotherham 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.938 / def 1.075 | Rotherham attack 1.037 / def 0.598 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Rotherham xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Rotherham kick off?
Plymouth vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is Plymouth vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Rotherham part of?
Plymouth vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 16% chance of winning, Rotherham a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Plymouth and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Rotherham?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Rotherham 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Rotherham in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Rotherham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.94) and Rotherham's defence rating (0.60), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (1.04x) against Plymouth's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
16%
6.18
29%
3.40
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.99
1.37
Rotherham xG
6.18
16%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
4%
24.26
29%
3.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 18.8 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.37 for Rotherham, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 32 games, going 16W 8D 8L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 2.16 PPG from 32 outings (21W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Rotherham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Plymouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 2.14 points per game from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.81 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 16W 8D 8L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 21W 6D 5L in their last 32 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.93 PPG; Rotherham away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rotherham in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rotherham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Rotherham?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, Rotherham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 57%, Rotherham 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Plymouth) and 14% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Rotherham in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Plymouth's recent matches and 14% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Plymouth's recent games and 14% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Rotherham tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rotherham edge out Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.62 xG and Rotherham 1.37 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Rotherham attack 1.04 / defence 0.60, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 16% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 54%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Rotherham 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (32 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (32 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.