Plymouth 3-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Portsmouth meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Plymouth's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Portsmouth's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Portsmouth and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 49% versus Portsmouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Portsmouth 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.87 xG and Portsmouth 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.405 / defence 0.963 | Portsmouth attack 0.875 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.145. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 75 Plymouth games / 73 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 58% | Draw 23% | Portsmouth 19%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Portsmouth 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 70% | Portsmouth 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 58% | Draw 23% | Portsmouth 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Plymouth 1.87 / Portsmouth 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.405 / def 0.963 | Portsmouth attack 0.875 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Portsmouth xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Portsmouth kick off?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Plymouth 3 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Plymouth vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Portsmouth part of?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 58% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plymouth and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 2 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.41) and Portsmouth's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.88x) against Plymouth's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 75/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.28
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.84
0.96
Portsmouth xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
3%
35.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.96 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 40W 18D 15L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 29W 24D 20L from 73 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Plymouth against 1.52 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.28 PPG from 36 outings (26W 4D 6L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 11W 11D 14L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.41 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Portsmouth in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 40W 18D 15L in their last 73 games (1.89 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 29W 24D 20L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Portsmouth away?
Plymouth's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.28 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Plymouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Portsmouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2025, when Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 42%, Portsmouth 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plymouth) and 39% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Portsmouth in 39%; Portsmouth in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Plymouth's recent matches and 39% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plymouth's recent games and 39% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Portsmouth 3-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.87 xG and Portsmouth 0.96 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.41 / defence 0.96 against Portsmouth attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 58% | Draw 23% | Portsmouth 19%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Portsmouth 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Portsmouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.89 PPG, Portsmouth 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.