Plymouth 1-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Lincoln meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Home Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Plymouth against 0.90 for Lincoln. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lincoln in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 60% versus Lincoln 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Lincoln 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.965 / defence 1.053 | Lincoln attack 0.960 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.236. Data: 25 Plymouth games / 25 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 35% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 36%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Lincoln 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Lincoln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 35% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Plymouth 1.24 / Lincoln 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.965 / def 1.053 | Lincoln attack 0.960 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lincoln xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Lincoln kick off?
Plymouth vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Plymouth 1 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is Plymouth vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Lincoln part of?
Plymouth vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 35% chance of winning, Lincoln a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plymouth and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Lincoln?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Lincoln in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.96) and Lincoln's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.96x) against Plymouth's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.46
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.49
1.25
Lincoln xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.25 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 12W 7D 6L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln's form line: 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lincoln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 12W 7D 6L in their last 25 games (1.72 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Lincoln away?
Plymouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lincoln won 1-4 on 7 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Plymouth
2
Draws
4
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Lincoln have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Plymouth 1-4 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 58%, Lincoln 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 50% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Plymouth's games and 67% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 50% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Lincoln tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Plymouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Lincoln attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 35% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 36%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Lincoln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Lincoln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.