Plymouth 1-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 45 as Plymouth welcome Burton Albion to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Burton Albion and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (89 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (89 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 48% versus Burton Albion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.93 xG and Burton Albion 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.210 / defence 0.847 | Burton Albion attack 1.004 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.112. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Plymouth games / 89 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 60% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 18%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Burton Albion 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 50% | Burton Albion 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 60% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Plymouth 1.93 / Burton Albion 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.210 / def 0.847 | Burton Albion attack 1.004 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Burton Albion xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Plymouth vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burton Albion part of?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 60% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plymouth and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in?
Plymouth (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.57
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.88
0.95
Burton Albion xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
3%
38.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.95 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 89 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 52W 19D 18L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 28W 21D 40L from 89 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.31 PPG from 45 outings (33W 5D 7L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 10W 9D 26L from 45 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.20 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 52W 19D 18L in their last 89 games (1.97 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 28W 21D 40L in their last 89 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burton Albion away?
Plymouth's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.31 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Burton Albion have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Plymouth 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 40%, Burton Albion 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Plymouth) and 56% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Burton Albion in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Plymouth's recent matches and 53% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Plymouth's recent games and 56% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Burton Albion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Burton Albion 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.93 xG and Burton Albion 0.95 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Burton Albion attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 90/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 60% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 18%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (89 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (89 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.