Plymouth 2-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 8 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 0D 4L at Home Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Plymouth's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 56% versus AFC Wimbledon 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 53% | AFC Wimbledon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.39 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.914 / defence 0.973 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.618 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.239. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Plymouth games / 35 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 51% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 19%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | AFC Wimbledon 5.26. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 40% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 51% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Plymouth 1.39 / AFC Wimbledon 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.914 / def 0.973 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.618 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.75
AFC Wimbledon xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 March 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth 2 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 51% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.62x) against Plymouth's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
51%
1.94
30%
3.39
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.14
0.75
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.75 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth's recent record stands at 17W 8D 9L from 34 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 5W 15D 14L across 34 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 9W 3D 4L from 16 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.09 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 34 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 17W 8D 9L in their last 34 games (1.74 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 5W 15D 14L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Plymouth's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.88 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Plymouth
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 50%, AFC Wimbledon 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plymouth) and 56% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plymouth's recent matches and 44% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plymouth's recent games and 56% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 2-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.39 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.75 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 51% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 19%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 53%, AFC Wimbledon 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.