Peterborough 6-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Peterborough welcome Wigan to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Wigan — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Wigan have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Wigan have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Peterborough.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Wigan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wigan have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Wigan in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 61% versus Wigan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Wigan 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.52 xG and Wigan 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.052 / defence 1.065 | Wigan attack 1.015 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Data: 75 Peterborough games / 74 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 45% | Draw 25% | Wigan 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Wigan 3.33. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Wigan lead the H2H ledger, but Peterborough carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | Wigan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 45% | Draw 25% | Wigan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.52 / Wigan 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.052 / def 1.065 | Wigan attack 1.015 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Wigan xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Wigan kick off?
Peterborough vs Wigan kicked off at 15:01 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Peterborough 6 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Peterborough vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Wigan part of?
Peterborough vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 45% chance of winning, Wigan a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
Record (5 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Wigan 4W.
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Wigan (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.05) and Wigan's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.95
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.72
1.20
Wigan xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.20 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 25W 14D 35L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 20W 27D 27L from 74 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.20 PPG, Wigan on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.38 PPG from 37 outings (14W 9D 14L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 8W 17D 12L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.93 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 25W 14D 35L in their last 74 games (1.20 PPG), while Wigan have gone 20W 27D 27L in their last 74 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Wigan away?
Peterborough's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.38 PPG; Wigan away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Wigan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Peterborough won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
4
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Wigan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Wigan 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 32% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 27% of games; Wigan in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Peterborough's games and 51% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 32% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Wigan tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Wigan in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Wigan 6-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.52 xG and Wigan 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Wigan attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 45% | Draw 25% | Wigan 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Wigan 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.20 PPG, Wigan 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.