Peterborough 1-3 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Peterborough at 75% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Port Vale travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port Vale stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in League One this season, Port Vale have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Port Vale are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Peterborough have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Port Vale have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Peterborough winning.
The historical record gives Peterborough a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (86 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Port Vale in-play tendencies (86 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.55 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.382 / defence 1.036 | Port Vale attack 0.686 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.110. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 87 Peterborough games / 40 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 75% | Draw 15% | Port Vale 9%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Port Vale 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Peterborough dominate the H2H record, yet Port Vale are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port Vale (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 70% | Port Vale 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 75% | Draw 15% | Port Vale 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 50% | xG Peterborough 2.55 / Port Vale 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.382 / def 1.036 | Port Vale attack 0.686 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Port Vale xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Port Vale kick off?
Peterborough vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 16 April 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Peterborough 1 - 3 Port Vale.
Where is Peterborough vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Port Vale part of?
Peterborough vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 75% chance of winning, Port Vale a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Peterborough and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Port Vale?
Record (5 meetings): Peterborough 5W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Port Vale in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.38x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.57
9%
10.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.34
0.79
Port Vale xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.57
15%
Draw
10.65
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
8%
12.77
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
135.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.79 for Port Vale, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 86 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 28W 18D 40L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 30W 25D 31L from 86 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.19 PPG, Port Vale on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.44 PPG from 41 outings (16W 11D 14L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 13W 10D 18L from 41 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.10 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 18D 40L in their last 86 games (1.19 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 30W 25D 31L in their last 86 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Port Vale away?
Peterborough's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.44 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Port Vale in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Port Vale runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 16 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2022, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 5, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-3 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Port Vale?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 61%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 44% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Peterborough's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 44% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Port Vale tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Peterborough 1-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.55 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.38 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 87/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 75% | Draw 15% | Port Vale 9%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (86 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Port Vale 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.