Peterborough 4-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Peterborough at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Lincoln travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weston Homes Stadium this season.
Lincoln — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lincoln have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lincoln's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Peterborough are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 42% versus Lincoln 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Lincoln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.35 xG and Lincoln 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.146 / defence 0.866 | Lincoln attack 1.048 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.013. Data: 4 Peterborough games / 50 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 46% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 25%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Lincoln 4.00. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 40% | Lincoln 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 46% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Peterborough 1.35 / Lincoln 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.146 / def 0.866 | Lincoln attack 1.048 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lincoln xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Lincoln kick off?
Peterborough vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Peterborough 4 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Peterborough vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Lincoln part of?
Peterborough vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 46% chance of winning, Lincoln a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Peterborough and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Lincoln in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.15x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.50
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.26
0.92
Lincoln xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.92 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 12W 10D 28L from 50 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 22L across 50 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lincoln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 0.92 PPG, Lincoln on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 8W 6D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln in 62%.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 12W 10D 28L in their last 50 games (0.92 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 15W 13D 22L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Lincoln away?
Peterborough's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.24 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Lincoln runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Peterborough won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Lincoln have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Lincoln 5-2 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 44%, Lincoln 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 56% (Lincoln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 40% of games; Lincoln in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Peterborough's games and 68% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Peterborough's matches and 56% of Lincoln's.
Do Peterborough and Lincoln tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lincoln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Lincoln 4-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.35 xG and Lincoln 0.92 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lincoln landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Lincoln attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 46% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 25%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Lincoln 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Lincoln's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 0.92 PPG, Lincoln 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.