Peterborough 4-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Fleetwood Town in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weston Homes Stadium this season.
Fleetwood Town have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Peterborough's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Fleetwood Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Peterborough 1W, Fleetwood Town 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Peterborough winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 51% versus Fleetwood Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 64% | Fleetwood Town 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.21 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.398 / defence 1.111 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.845 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.181. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 88 Peterborough games / 89 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 62% | Draw 20% | Fleetwood Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Fleetwood Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 80% | Fleetwood Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 62% | Draw 20% | Fleetwood Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Peterborough 2.21 / Fleetwood Town 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.398 / def 1.111 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.845 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Fleetwood Town xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Peterborough 4 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 62% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Peterborough and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Fleetwood Town?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Fleetwood Town in?
Peterborough (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.40x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.84x) against Peterborough's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 88/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.04
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.32
1.11
Fleetwood Town xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
50.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.11 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 89 games, going 47W 13D 29L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.07 PPG from 89 outings (22W 29D 38L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 25W 8D 11L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.05 points per game from 44 outings (10W 16D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.09 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 89 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 47W 13D 29L in their last 89 games (1.73 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 22W 29D 38L in their last 89 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.89 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Peterborough go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-1 on 16 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Fleetwood Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Peterborough 4-1 Fleetwood Town.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 46%, Fleetwood Town 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Peterborough) and 50% (Fleetwood Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Peterborough's recent matches and 59% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Peterborough's matches and 50% of Fleetwood Town's.
Do Peterborough and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fleetwood Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Fleetwood Town 4-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.21 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.11 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.40 / defence 1.11 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 88/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 62% | Draw 20% | Fleetwood Town 18%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 64%, Fleetwood Town 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.98 average — above their attacking norm. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.