Notts County vs Stockport County – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Notts County have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 4W 3D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Stockport County's overall League One record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Notts County against 1.80 for Stockport County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Notts County have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Stockport County in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Notts County lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 2–5 with Stockport County winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 57% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 54% | Stockport County 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.38 xG and Stockport County 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.929 / defence 1.089 | Stockport County attack 1.073 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Data: 4 Notts County games / 50 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Notts County 34% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 70% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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