Northampton 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Stevenage at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Northampton haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 5W 3D 2L at Sixfields Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Stevenage haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Northampton at 2.00 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Northampton: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Stevenage, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Northampton and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 54% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 44% | Stevenage 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.41 xG and Stevenage 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Stevenage attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.158. Data: 0 Northampton games / 0 Stevenage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Northampton 43% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 30%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 50% | Stevenage 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 43% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Northampton 1.41 / Stevenage 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Stevenage attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Northampton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Stevenage xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Stevenage kick off?
Northampton vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Northampton 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Northampton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Stevenage part of?
Northampton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 43% chance of winning, Stevenage a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Northampton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
Record (4 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Northampton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.74
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.54
1.13
Stevenage xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Northampton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Northampton and 1.13 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton's recent record stands at 23W 14D 9L from 46 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. Northampton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 9L across 46 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. Stevenage haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.80 PPG, Stevenage on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 12W 6D 5L from 23 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 7W 11D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.33 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Pre-Season
Stevenage
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 23W 14D 9L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 24W 13D 9L in their last 46 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Stevenage away?
Northampton's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.83 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Northampton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stevenage in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Northampton
2
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 56%, Stevenage 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Northampton) and 26% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stevenage in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Northampton's recent matches and 52% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Northampton's recent games and 26% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Northampton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Northampton 0-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.41 xG and Stevenage 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Northampton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Stevenage attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 43% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 30%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 44%, Stevenage 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.80 PPG, Stevenage 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.