Northampton 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Northampton at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Charlton encounter.

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Analysis

Charlton make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League One (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Northampton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Northampton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Northampton's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Northampton, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Jan 2024, ended Northampton 3–2 Charlton — a Northampton win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Northampton 55% and Charlton 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Charlton 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Northampton surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.54 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.993 / defence 1.029 | Charlton attack 1.028 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Data: built from Northampton's last 34 games and Charlton's last 81.

Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 25% | Charlton 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.29 | Draw 4.01 | Charlton 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Northampton's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Northampton 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 70% (last 10 away games).

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