Northampton 1-3 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Northampton and Cardiff meet at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Northampton's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Sixfields Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cardiff have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Cardiff have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Northampton, 1.60 for Cardiff — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 48% versus Cardiff 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 43% | Cardiff 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.15 xG and Cardiff 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.890 / defence 0.910 | Cardiff attack 0.835 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.037. Data: 61 Northampton games / 14 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Cardiff 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 40% | Cardiff 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Northampton 1.15 / Cardiff 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.890 / def 0.910 | Cardiff attack 0.835 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Northampton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cardiff xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Cardiff kick off?
Northampton vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Cardiff?
Northampton 1 - 3 Cardiff.
Where is Northampton vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Cardiff part of?
Northampton vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 44% chance of winning, Cardiff a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Northampton and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Cardiff in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cardiff's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.83x) against Northampton's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 61/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.25
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.93
0.79
Cardiff xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Northampton and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Northampton and 0.79 for Cardiff, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.17 PPG from 60 outings (17W 19D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Northampton against 1.17 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (5W 13D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.17 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 17W 19D 24L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Cardiff away?
Northampton's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.27 PPG; Cardiff away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Northampton
0
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, Northampton have won 0, Cardiff have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Cardiff 5-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 40%, Cardiff 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Northampton) and 47% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 43% of games; Cardiff in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Northampton's recent matches and 60% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Northampton's recent games and 47% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Cardiff tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Northampton 1-3 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.15 xG and Cardiff 0.79 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Cardiff attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 25%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 43%, Cardiff 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.18 PPG, Cardiff 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.